Uzgen bypass: the build pays back, the repairs land on the state

Once a month we build a financial model of a real project from public data. It is an exercise, not an audit. This time: the Uzgen bypass, Kyrgyzstan's first toll road.

What is public

• 14.1 km, four lanes, two bridges
• opened 6 December 2024, built in 11 months
• $29.4 million of private investment
• 49-year concession

Where it strains

Car tolls are effectively frozen while costs rise every year. In our model, operating profit turns negative around year 29.

The real pressure comes earlier. Major resurfacing costs $0.65–0.90 million per kilometre:

• $9.2–12.7 million for 14.1 km
• 31–43% of the original investment
• the first cycle falls in year 12, just as the loan is being repaid

Reserves built up by then do not cover it. The money has to come from tolls or from the state.

How it ends

At the end of the concession the road goes back to the state with about 92% of its useful life consumed. Rehabilitation comes out at roughly 17.8 billion som in year-49 prices.

Treat this as a model result, not a forecast: it is sensitive to traffic, toll indexation and repair costs.

What to check in road concessions

• how tolls are indexed, and who decides if indexation is frozen
• whether there is a major maintenance reserve and who monitors it
• what condition the road must be in at handback, and how that is tested 5–7 years before expiry
• whether the repair cycle matches the debt repayment profile

A build that pays back does not make a concession sustainable for 49 years. The most expensive decisions come in the second half of the term.

The model uses public data only and does not reflect unpublished contract terms.